好多人啊~

污染3真沒想到,讀心理學書,竟讀出環保議題來。更好,資料不假的話,我借題發揮,就可以更理直氣壯。

先交代一下資料來源。《發展心理學新論》,民國六十一年初版,七十四年初版第九次印行;沒錯,一本四十多年前在台灣出版的心理學著作。那時,「偏安」台灣的中華民國被「逐出」聯合國(1971年)不久;大陸即中華人民共和國(中共)還在文革年代。今時今日,舉世說的「中國人」,一定不會以「台灣人」為代表;部分「香港人」更會以「強國」人稱之。

「強國人」之「強」,之「舉世聞名」,主因大概在「富」,尤其因「土豪」之「炫富」而來之「氣焰」。愛屋固然可以及烏,自也會惡烏而及屋。這些令人討厭的因素,在中國大陸境內,見之於網上的評論,其實也不少,佔多少,難以統計和估計,現在也只能放下不表。這篇只以一些數字和事實,表示一點「驚訝」。

先說全球人口,原來在百年之間,增加得很快,用「激增」來形容,可能有點抽象。以下試條列出來:

八千年前--全球人口不超過五百萬;

1850年--增至十億;

1930--僅經過八十年,即增至二十憶;

1930至1970年--不過四十年,已超過三十五億;

(1970年左右有人估計)西曆2000年--增至七十億。

一百六十多年前,全球人口還不及現在中國人口之數。就是到了1970年,以今天中印兩國人口,加起來幾乎就是整個世界了。根據維基百科,到2014年,全球人口已超過七十二億。四十年前的估計,可以說大致不差。再過數十年後又如何,除非有什麼全球大災難,否則人口只會增加,難以減少。

地球,八千年前至今,體積相信沒有變大,那時候全球人口還比今天香港七百多萬人還要少,就算感覺天不大,地怎說也夠大,整個香港九龍新界,由一人「獨霸」,相信也沒有其他人會走出來阻撓。香港成為英國租借地時,今天一個「太古城」就足以讓全港市民「安居」了。百多年間,香港人口,並非「個別」地區化增加;實如全球那般,都在激增。衣食住行,地,沒有膨脹,人卻不斷增加,如何解決住的問題,相信不是靠口號就能成事。至於如何解決,我除了想到將全球的人或一半永久沉沒在深海中,或空運到外太空自生自滅,大概一時也沒有其他良方的了(我畏高,理該最宜「潛水」)。

寫到這一刻,真有點不知如何寫下去的感覺。全球現今的問題,究竟是因為「硬道理」的無止境「發展」而致出現各種各樣的污染,還是因為人類的不斷增長,因而出現避無可避的各種問題,例如過度消耗(地球資源等)、殘殺其他物種甚而人類自相殘殺,等等,令地球變得好像再無前景可言。曾幾何時,英美日等當年富強走過的路,遺禍無窮,窮了大半個世紀的中國要富起來了,卻原來是「重蹈」那些富強國度的「覆轍」:當年的煙霧(Smog),今天的霧霾;當年的「一泓死水」,今天的江河污染。無不是「富強」的詛咒。你早已開始發財立品,到我「覺醒」時,恐怕又有另一波要「富起來」的災難重演了。

歷史,似乎不會喚醒人類;歷史,其實只在不斷重演。看來,演至挪亞方舟再來,才會有天大地大的「好」日子。

原來,沒有歷史,才談得上有最好。

污染1污染2

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10 thoughts on “好多人啊~

  1. “至於如何解決,我除了想到將全球的人或一半永久沉沒在深海中…"
    That’s too much. First, The former solution (kill all) could be very tough on domesticated animals. A lot of them may die too. That wouldn’t be fair to them. Second, you only need to kill off females and can leave males alone. Males don’t contribute to fertility rate. In the long run killing males doesn’t help much, though it may help in the short run.
    Disclaimer: It is not about discrimating against women, or against men. It’s just that we males are nothing (or almost nothing) when making babies is concerned.

  2. 唔使担心会太多人嘅,除咗天灾(有好多仲系HAARP搞出来嘅),人祸就多箩箩。好似爱滋病毒、猪流感、禽流感等等,仲会不停咁转型,这些病毒唔系自然环境中生成,而系人工合成,更配上各种含绝育成分嘅疫苗,尼啲其实就系科学家研制减少世界人口嘅生化武器。仲有转基因粮食,人食咗转基因食品,2、30年后开始细胞分裂异常,生cancer。转基因食品亦可以使到人类有100%遗传继承性嘅危害,得慢性病,令到下一代体质衰弱,缺少某种抗体,好多细细个就得奇奇怪怪病,又或者生育基因受破坏,造成绝育。隔代控制,甚至超越三代。有所谓一代致病,二代致傻,三代就绝晒种咯!

  3. If we (all countries) do what the Japanese do, our (world) population will very likely fall. The Chinese one child policy would work too, but they’ve given up on it already.
    Disclaimer: I just state them. I don’t endorse them. (To many countries, these are not really practical anyway, either politically, culturally, or that they aren’t rich.)

    Many rich countries’ population will likely begin to fall some years, but not that many years, from now. It’s happening to Japan already. Without the Japanese factor, it will still happen to those countries, just later. The US may hold out for much longer because of immigrants. So, if we need to worry, we only need to worry about the poor countries. Should we aid them with money and food? Should we send them only contraceptives and hope that they get the message? (Kidding.) I don’t know.
    But to be fair, I have to say that rich countries “produce" most pollution, though not population. Also, the Japanese do not plan or intend for population decrease to happen. It just happens, given their culture and the rich country factors. The Japanese government is trying to fight against the trend because it will be bad for their economy. (Good thinking?? The Chinese govt too.)

    I am not sure how much solar energy we can harvest in the future or if it is enough to curb pollution.
    I just hope that we can harness nuclear fusion (not fission as used now in nuclear plants) well enough and soon enough and use it in our energy consumption, before the point of no return (from catastrophic climate change). Nuclear fusion is clean energy and there is no radioactive waste. I think the scientists have just got past the break-even point (energy input= energy output) not long ago in some experimental setup. Hopefully, they can get more output soon and make it commercially viable. But I’m not sure if I will live long enough to see that.

    Then of course, everybody dies. The sun will exhaust most of its energy one day. Our planet cannot sustain life then even if we never screw up. We can buy some time if we succeed in colonizing some planet (that can sustain life) of another star. (So far away…) Then, of course, everybody still dies. The new home star will exhaust its energy…

    Why are so many people afraid of death? Maybe our genes are playing tricks on us. I’d say, “Get over it." Well, it’s easier said than done. But it matters not much… Stars will “die"… The 2nd law of thermodynamics… We still need to pee… Not in my golf cart, damn it… Screw our genes…Enjoy some grape juice, fermented (hehehe) or not… Why do we want to screw our jeans??? To our health!!! I just want a pair of stone-washed jeans… Bottoms up!!! Just don’t pee in your jeans… Cheers!!!
    – – – – –

    Cheers!!!. “…And your third fiance didn’t show…Sometimes you wanna go where everybody knows your name, and they’re always glad to came, you wanna to be where you can see, our troubles are all the same…And your shrink went off to Europe and didn’t even write, and your husband wants to be– a girl…you wanna go where people know, people are all the same…"

  4. zpdrmn chang:

    全球人口,我猜各國大都朝著有增無減的趨勢「進展」,分別只在大小而已。醫學令人不易死,自然就「怕死」,哈。生死問題,真不知如何細說。

    • “真不知如何細說" Don’t say anything then, just listen to some songs, even if none of them is the one I posted last time. (It’s a theme song of an old TV situational comedy series.)
      Or just eat some mangoes. Or do what the conclusion below suggests.

      “朝著有增無減的趨勢「進展」" In the short term that’s true. In the long term it may level off around year 2050. It may even start to decrease then. But then it may keep on increasing.
      But I don’t want to write too much more about it . So, I’ll just give you some graphs–in case you’re interested, some jokes(?), and some more.

      The graph titled “UN Population Projection" (scroll down to the middle) in
      http://zebu.uoregon.edu/2003/es202/lec07.html
      In the case of “medium" growth, the world population will level off around 10 (maybe 11) billion people around 2050. I guess that it is sustainable at this level. Just a guess.
      In the case of “high," it’s scary. Can’t tell if or where it will level off. (But eventually it will. Maybe not, if before it happens we all die out because of catastrophic climate change or something else. Oh, it can still be called level “off."
      In the case of “medium high," it will level off probably around 20 (maybe 22) billion. Is that too many people?
      Anything below medium, we are fine. But it could be hard on the economy while the population is shrinking.

      And the 1st graph (on top) on the same webpage shows the trend up to 2050, assuming, I think, the case of medium growth. The lower line on top of the blue area shows what I was talking last time about the rich (developed) countries, whose trend is going to be decreasing.

      If you scroll down lower than the UN Pop Proj graph, you can find a graph of Fertility Rate (Births per Woman) vs Female Literacy. Males doesn’t count (sorry), no matter how many books we read, (hahaha).
      Hmmm… Let’s send many books to the poor countries… Books? Okay, send teachers. Okay, okay, send 荒言 over there. (Kidding.)

      Developed countries:
      The US as an example:
      Figure 3 in
      https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf
      The trend is going to be increasing because of immigrants. If we take that factor out, it is decreasing. For other developed countries, sorry, no such luck! Decreasing.

      Japan:
      It’s not hard to find out that its population has (just) started to decrease already. I’m too lazy to look for the info again. (Advice for the Japanese… I shouldn’t say anything. What do I know?)

      Not so developed countries:
      China (the most populated country, for now):
      It’s still increasing, but the trend will very likely turn around later (soon enough), even though now the one-child-policy has been dropped.

      India (the second, but the projection is that it is going to take over the Chinese):
      Come on, Indian people, do something, please. Or don’t do something…that thing…(haha). Want some books?? Books again?? Okay, okay, contraceptives.

      Very not so developed…(order? of animals. How many spieces? )
      Roaches:
      Well, there are more of them than us, (how come it’s not a problem for them? It’s not fair,) and they will very likely outlast us. We stupid human. (It’s not fair? Do I sound like a kid? LoL.)
      (Interesting, termites are close “relatives" to roaches.)

      Conclusion:
      I just want to be a roach in my next life, and the next, and the next… (Afterlife?? What the…)
      Maybe I can do that now, can any genetic engineers or scientists out there help me??? Ah…Ouch!!… Don’t hurt me…Help!! I don’t want to be a roach anymore…Ouch…Please stop it…Help!!

      Guess what this is:

      \ /
      \ /
      \ /
      (^^)
      / \

      • Forgot this: From some data I read before about the Chinese population (and birth rate, population structure, or whatnot), I would say that they should drop the one-child-policy 15 years ago, (maybe 12 years ago, taking 3 more years–3 more, not only 3 years– to see the trend of birth rate or to be sure about the trend and estimate the impact on the population ahead). Doing it 10 years ago would likely be too late already. They just dropped the policy several months ago. So, it’s hard to curb the projected decreasing trend, though it will help a bit. Late is better than never.
        They should let couples have 3 kids. Why not? Even if you let them, many of them may not want to have so many kids. Then why a restriction? (I mean today. It’s not like 30 years ago.) It beats me.

  5. 你想永世是roach? 然後「統治」地球?

    其實一孩政策下,大陸多的是兩孩三孩家庭。其實什麼環保策略,沒一樣及得上「減人」;但誰該減即滅絕呢?什麼數據都即時失效。

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